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January 21, 2020; 94 (3) Article

Temporal changes in the likelihood of dementia and MCI over 18 years in a population sample

Kumar B. Rajan, Jennifer Weuve, Robert S. Wilson, Lisa L. Barnes, Elizabeth A. McAninch, Denis A. Evans
First published December 5, 2019, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.0000000000008731
Kumar B. Rajan
From the Department of Public Health Sciences (K.B.R.) and Alzheimer's Disease Center (K.B.R.), University of California at Davis; Department of Epidemiology (J.W.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center (R.S.W., L.L.B.); and Department of Internal Medicine (E.A.M., D.A.E.), Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
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Jennifer Weuve
From the Department of Public Health Sciences (K.B.R.) and Alzheimer's Disease Center (K.B.R.), University of California at Davis; Department of Epidemiology (J.W.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center (R.S.W., L.L.B.); and Department of Internal Medicine (E.A.M., D.A.E.), Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
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Robert S. Wilson
From the Department of Public Health Sciences (K.B.R.) and Alzheimer's Disease Center (K.B.R.), University of California at Davis; Department of Epidemiology (J.W.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center (R.S.W., L.L.B.); and Department of Internal Medicine (E.A.M., D.A.E.), Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
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Lisa L. Barnes
From the Department of Public Health Sciences (K.B.R.) and Alzheimer's Disease Center (K.B.R.), University of California at Davis; Department of Epidemiology (J.W.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center (R.S.W., L.L.B.); and Department of Internal Medicine (E.A.M., D.A.E.), Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
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Elizabeth A. McAninch
From the Department of Public Health Sciences (K.B.R.) and Alzheimer's Disease Center (K.B.R.), University of California at Davis; Department of Epidemiology (J.W.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center (R.S.W., L.L.B.); and Department of Internal Medicine (E.A.M., D.A.E.), Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
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Denis A. Evans
From the Department of Public Health Sciences (K.B.R.) and Alzheimer's Disease Center (K.B.R.), University of California at Davis; Department of Epidemiology (J.W.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA; Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center (R.S.W., L.L.B.); and Department of Internal Medicine (E.A.M., D.A.E.), Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL.
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Temporal changes in the likelihood of dementia and MCI over 18 years in a population sample
Kumar B. Rajan, Jennifer Weuve, Robert S. Wilson, Lisa L. Barnes, Elizabeth A. McAninch, Denis A. Evans
Neurology Jan 2020, 94 (3) e292-e298; DOI: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000008731

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Abstract

Objective To examine the temporal changes in the likelihood of dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) between 1993 and 2012 using a short battery of cognitive tests.

Methods A cohort of 10,342 participants underwent a short battery of cognitive tests collected during triennial in-home interviews with 2,794 of those evaluated for the clinical diagnosis of dementia and MCI. We used a generalized logit regression model to estimate the likelihood of dementia and MCI, and a quasibinomial regression model to examine the temporal changes in those likelihood scores.

Results A short battery of cognitive tests—delayed story recall test, Symbol Digit Modalities Test, and the Mini-Mental State Examination—were associated with the clinical diagnosis of dementia and MCI. The classification accuracy of likelihood scores was 0.92 for dementia and 0.85 for MCI. After adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and education, the likelihood of dementia in the population decreased from 21.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.9%–22.3%) to 18.9% (95% CI 18.1%–19.7%) between 1993–1996 and 2000–2002 and showed no significant decline between 2000–2002 and 2009–2012 (−0.2%, 95% CI −1.1% to 0.7%). The estimated likelihood of MCI remained similar between 1993–1996 and 2009–2012 (29.0%, 95% CI 27.9%–30.1%), but showed a nonsignificant decrease in 2000–2002.

Conclusion The likelihood scores based on a short battery of cognitive tests can serve as a measure of dementia and MCI in epidemiologic studies. The decline in the likelihood of dementia and MCI over earlier years was not sustained in later years.

Glossary

AA=
African American;
CI=
confidence interval;
DLS=
dementia likelihood score;
EA=
European American;
MCI=
mild cognitive impairment;
MMSE=
Mini-Mental State Examination;
NCI=
no cognitive impairment;
NINCDS-ADRDA=
National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke–Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Disorders Association;
OR=
odds ratio;
SDMT=
Symbol Digit Modalities Test

Footnotes

  • Go to Neurology.org/N for full disclosures. Funding information and disclosures deemed relevant by the authors, if any, are provided at the end of the article.

  • Received July 20, 2018.
  • Accepted in final form July 18, 2019.
  • © 2019 American Academy of Neurology
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