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Abstract
We describe a process of organizational strategic future forecasting, with a horizon of 2035, as implemented by the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) on behalf of its members, and as a model approach for other organizations. The participants were members of the 2018–2020 AAN Boards of Directors and Executive Team, moderated by a consultant with expertise in future forecasting. Four predetermined model scenarios of import to our field (1 “expectable,” 1 “challenging,” and 2 “visionary”) were discussed in small groups, with alternative scenarios developed in specific domains. Common themes emerged among all scenarios: the importance of thoughtful integration of biomedical and information technology tools into neurologic practice; continued demonstration of the value of neurologic care to society; and emphasis on population management and prevention of neurologic disease. Allowing for the inherent uncertainties of predicting the future, the AAN's integration of structured forecasting into its strategic planning process has allowed the organization to prepare more effectively for change, such as the disruptions stemming from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The approaches outlined here will be integrated into future AAN operations and may be implemented to a similar effect by other organizations.
Glossary
- AAN=
- American Academy of Neurology;
- AI=
- artificial intelligence;
- COVID-19=
- coronavirus disease 2019;
- IAF=
- Institute of Alternative Futures
Footnotes
Go to Neurology.org/N for full disclosures. Funding information and disclosures deemed relevant by the authors, if any, are provided at the end of the article.
The AAN and AANI Boards of Directors and the AAN Executive Team coinvestigators are listed in the appendix 2 at links.lww.com/WNL/B367
- Received October 5, 2020.
- Accepted in final form February 26, 2021.
- © 2021 American Academy of Neurology
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